Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
37.3 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
37.3 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1963°N, 115.2111°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 20:02:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
27.7 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 9.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca192eff0fef663975159279506d23f61d89b4fa14b4a604853663650b6d6182
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_101004_pred-32.20--115.21-20260724T2002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_101004_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 19:26:30.412694+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.