Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
5.5 miles South-West of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles South-West of Empire
40.5262°N, 119.4267°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 22:06:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 2.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1bbaab65aed9611bce58fd4bd1c9ece90c949211211ca7756c708db0e60e05b8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_101004_pred-40.53--119.43-20260722T2206
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_101004_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 19:26:30.412694+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.