Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
2.6 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.6 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5496°N, 122.2394°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 23:27:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
473h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
848490a5a3ae88ce6531390c13b184b7fc36448152fa33171e0c1c67fcd8ab43
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_111535_pred-38.55--122.24-20260811T2327
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_111535_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 19:26:30.412694+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.