Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
24.5 miles South-West of Oceanside
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.5 miles South-West of Oceanside
32.9829°N, 117.7172°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 02:49:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
45h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
162.2 km
62.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
28.3 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 9.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
44a0743724863fe844bd961207169bb1555daea7e4e663f635c8dea561163e64
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_133140_pred-32.98--117.72-20260725T0249
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_133140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 22:47:39.892083+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.