Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.9 miles South-East of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.9 miles South-East of Brentwood
37.8806°N, 121.6086°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 15:19:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
19.7 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
110df44f8a5c63fbf98c36a7d346af55978da482fe9a4ea206e6a82ce35339cb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_133140_pred-37.88--121.61-20260724T1519
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_133140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 22:47:39.892083+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.