Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
29.7 miles West of Tuscarora
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.7 miles West of Tuscarora
41.2706°N, 116.7925°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 16:20:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
290.1 km
190.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
25.8 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ecacf6d2936f64c7af1bfcc13df859bf8981feb8d2fade80b44842f986592254
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_133140_pred-41.27--116.79-20260723T1620
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_133140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 22:47:39.892083+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.