Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
1.4 miles East of Grant Grove
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.4 miles East of Grant Grove
36.7455°N, 118.9416°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 06:40:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
409h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
88.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.1
- 0.84 over limit
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 7.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9f895360bc365b568f2deca9f4f0cd1bcb23a98e6f74d2943256f09c88e88b3f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_143627_pred-36.75--118.94-20260809T0640
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_143627_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 22:47:39.892083+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.