Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
19.6 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.6 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4406°N, 118.9574°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 06:18:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
288h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
80c99d20c78d416f97d70df5d709df6eeae1771b026ab839f26805af53fcb26c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_143627_pred-38.44--118.96-20260804T0618
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_143627_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 22:47:39.892083+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.