Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.4 miles North-East of Healdsburg
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North-East of Healdsburg
38.7193°N, 122.7116°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 07:03:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
529h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 4.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
19fdb283fa9b4f9667c21cba79e11010c9bb5886d75f1286fabeab6f73dd6c22
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_143627_pred-38.72--122.71-20260814T0703
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_143627_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 22:47:39.892083+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.