Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
10.7 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles North-East of Banning
34.0119°N, 116.7206°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 09:34:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
35.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
33.9 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 15.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bf1b71cd0c346c3f947d0c0edeb79e3bbe7cf4318520471a116086912b9bc937
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_165305_pred-34.01--116.72-20260724T0934
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_165305_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 02:09:18.043008+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.