Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
6.9 miles North of Markleeville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles North of Markleeville
38.7931°N, 119.7756°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 23:05:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
25.8 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9c745d4346bb3d2ed4bf469bfa1cefd8fa97ed4a72e94c2353c3638bb8b6de70
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_165305_pred-38.79--119.78-20260722T2305
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_165305_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 02:09:18.043008+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.