Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.5 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles South-East of Empire
40.5315°N, 119.3167°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 04:50:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 2.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a5609afbcaede303d3ad4509f55d659fee63ae7824ecaa0bdad853c348e62641
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_165305_pred-40.53--119.32-20260723T0450
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_165305_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 02:09:18.043008+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.