Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
17.5 miles North-East of Wells
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.5 miles North-East of Wells
41.2392°N, 114.6735°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 16:20:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
296.4 km
196.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
29.3 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 10.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8d021e8adb32a5e58f8359f5c985674888be79e17f44ce636f7c878ab9581ae5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_165305_pred-41.24--114.67-20260723T1620
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_165305_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 02:09:18.043008+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.