Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
14.5 miles South-West of Topaz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles South-West of Topaz
38.4417°N, 119.7467°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 06:37:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
25.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 7.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
72da96de838255fb80719aa0a6c0d9cc0120e14a483e51103ba046948459a502
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_201313_pred-38.44--119.75-20260723T0637
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_201313_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.