Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
46.9 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
46.9 miles South-East of Calexico
32.0683°N, 115.1478°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 17:43:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
108h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
71.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
22.3 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 19.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6b88b15a90d4ce3e2552283c3ac17d429ec72868e5f369619e9770a73a7b2070
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_211750_pred-32.07--115.15-20260727T1743
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_211750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.