Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
24.7 miles South-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.7 miles South-West of Warm Springs
37.9713°N, 116.7496°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 05:32:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
48h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a18d3fb46510e075c366d587fc6861328310f29004c417822c445a37c2beee70
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_211750_pred-37.97--116.75-20260725T0532
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_211750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.