Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
13.4 miles South-East of Sacramento
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles South-East of Sacramento
38.4263°N, 121.3459°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 06:40:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
409h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
89.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.1
- 0.84 over limit
Depth Error
22.5 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 12.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a528952139ae9ccf92944a351d876f116327a8567801aa80e56cc00a40cb975
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_211750_pred-38.43--121.35-20260809T0640
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_211750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.