Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
12.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.2 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4398°N, 122.9358°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 18:06:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
228h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc07490dda1eeebc8ca30b1d0f3b446103586f1824dd58d7ba8a588a285a97d4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_211750_pred-39.44--122.94-20260801T1806
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_211750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.