Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
24.8 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.8 miles South of Crystal Springs
36.9985°N, 115.1295°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 18:06:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
26.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
63.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
58.3 h
22.3 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
32.9 km
Pred. 26.0 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
67ab196d390e51a8b7255ede719dd3d886cc64164e5e101d6e6d66db392eba7f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_233339_pred-37.00--115.13-20260723T1806
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:13:36 PST
Source Batch
20260722_233339_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 11:13:37.421847+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.