Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.2 miles North-West of Fall River Mills
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.2 miles North-West of Fall River Mills
41.0692°N, 121.5728°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 22:51:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
160.3 km
60.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
23.0 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
30d9defff42024adc7b4552ff36cb2f90f5ca1b9fb8518b9277715ba4e7316f8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_233339_pred-41.07--121.57-20260724T2251
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:13:36 PST
Source Batch
20260722_233339_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 11:13:37.421847+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.