Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
18.4 miles South-West of Dana Point
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.4 miles South-West of Dana Point
33.2490°N, 117.8826°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 05:55:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
68.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.2 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 14.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3c7a3f008bc213df0a7d94502e4d51b5fdc7693f0f38a32247c504e5db8255a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_003953_pred-33.25--117.88-20260730T0555
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_003953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 08:52:57.890733+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.