Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
4.8 miles East of Hiko
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.8 miles East of Hiko
37.5721°N, 115.1511°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 17:43:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
82h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
57.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
80.6 h
44.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
9.2 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 6.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5e5e75c6406c84d3a6590f6a5e22bd559737ee96d254507eb59ff257d6dc6aa8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_003953_pred-37.57--115.15-20260727T1743
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_003953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 08:52:57.890733+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.