Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
19.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4081°N, 118.9386°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 06:40:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
383h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
84.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
101.1 h
65.1 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7b345398ad9bf851a996a1d174e6fd1fd2a33e33b7b9df89c16d2b3d3dad7674
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_003953_pred-38.41--118.94-20260809T0640
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_003953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 08:52:57.890733+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.