Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.7 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8674°N, 121.7625°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 06:48:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
22.6 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 8.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2584dd60a5ffec632bedee561a80466a612dd69dd08c0d07683257e816154d83
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_025742_pred-37.87--121.76-20260725T0648
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_025742_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 12:16:26.679017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.