Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.0 miles East of Slab City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.0 miles East of Slab City
33.2340°N, 115.2770°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 21:21:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
158h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
73.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c97d9c89f1f258b9a704ba6588ed3113eccc82dc6ff8acb7ae9371892ecfe5ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_040349_pred-33.23--115.28-20260730T2121
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_040349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 12:16:26.679017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.