Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.2 miles West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.2 miles West of Hawthorne NV
38.4261°N, 118.9367°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 21:43:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
278h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0db6ba709aa92c1b3a215348aa2aba8ff4187d7bd44b1af1a47a278ecbc5ad89
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_040349_pred-38.43--118.94-20260804T2143
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_040349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 12:16:26.679017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.