Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.7 miles South-West of Calistoga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-West of Calistoga
38.5193°N, 122.6532°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 22:26:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
519h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
35.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
462d6634036107fd74f79aa427867ecf4c2845ebcb48825cdb3461d4b438251b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_040349_pred-38.52--122.65-20260814T2226
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_040349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 12:16:26.679017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.