Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
2.0 miles West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.0 miles West of Calipatria
33.1363°N, 115.5471°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 20:43:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
22.9 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 4.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5dd9daf7638367d5a8daf6351ff5bc7fee105ec36f7df306366d0aef47bf7201
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_062110_pred-33.14--115.55-20260724T2043
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_062110_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.