Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
36.1 miles South of Gaviota
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.1 miles South of Gaviota
33.9619°N, 120.3714°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 02:28:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.1 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8d965ecd44a3fc55aa0b7fb50c0c4c5843637bdcb9d19058db137a4a2010795a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_062110_pred-33.96--120.37-20260725T0228
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_062110_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.