Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.6 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8594°N, 121.7422°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 08:12:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
25h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
22.6 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 8.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
28184613a722678ba1e68c4008fee95b8e5611dd8bb59693acf5001191ece9ef
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_062110_pred-37.86--121.74-20260725T0812
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_062110_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.