Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
24.4 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.4 miles South-West of Eureka
40.5378°N, 124.4730°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 14:58:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
28.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
65fa89d11482dcde2a9579a8c16b3972ad1590b6999429efa0ed876cb3c0e292
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_062110_pred-40.54--124.47-20260724T1458
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_062110_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.