Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
3.7 miles East of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles East of Mammoth Lakes
37.6536°N, 118.9040°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 09:10:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
98h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
15.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
54.4 h
18.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8f5544a45d3bfa6f62eba66cdc60cfa73ce856a7bd34516dc09d712a54fc38d8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_072717_pred-37.65--118.90-20260728T0910
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_072717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.