Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
4.1 miles North-East of Pioneer
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles North-East of Pioneer
38.4261°N, 120.5158°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 21:43:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
278h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
152.3 km
52.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f6826079ec241f2b7691156cef7119c0aa27141d9263f8addf70247b61568ddb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_072717_pred-38.43--120.52-20260804T2143
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_072717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.