Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
13.3 miles South-East of Sacramento
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.3 miles South-East of Sacramento
38.4323°N, 121.3406°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 22:04:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
399h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
90.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.1
- 0.84 over limit
Depth Error
22.5 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 12.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bff72f483a361491ccb4042d3f8dabf767ed9072655477a6020dcd63a12e3a3d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_072717_pred-38.43--121.34-20260809T2204
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_072717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 15:40:25.063381+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.