Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
37.8 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
37.8 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1807°N, 115.2330°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 23:37:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.85
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
35.7 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 17.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a224b496c3aa861696b2561b732d9cac4a1cff77503745fea8bb51664a866abb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_094502_pred-32.18--115.23-20260725T2337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_094502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 17:58:22.412471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.