Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
21.2 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.2 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3364°N, 118.0737°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 17:52:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
186.3 km
86.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
26.8 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 8.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1d2d34bce1262d4b388f7621a8b66b84b826de357ac436c2795b140f1dfcad0a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_094502_pred-33.34--118.07-20260725T1752
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_094502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 17:58:22.412471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.