Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
22.1 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.1 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0324°N, 115.2638°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 07:23:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
26.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
190.4 km
90.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
37.4 km
Pred. 26.0 km vs actual 11.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6d6ba119e58fc4d058db1b9b94203c6d41ab77ae6751aa93cad995959763a017
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_094502_pred-37.03--115.26-20260724T0723
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_094502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 17:58:22.412471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.