Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.7 miles South-East of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles South-East of Coleville
38.3909°N, 119.3370°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 19:54:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
25.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 7.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
40f7416a65aa52994bc0d153df67905cd8090ea1fbba6ab515e5ad7b372e8688
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_094502_pred-38.39--119.34-20260723T1954
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_094502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 17:58:22.412471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.