Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
5.1 miles North-West of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles North-West of Mammoth Lakes
37.7072°N, 119.0283°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 16:45:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
105h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
26.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
46.8 h
10.8 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M3.01 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
96aef92ce827980964ca69cd06e9df322055bafaedff806820dda2bfb64d0cbe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_122140_pred-37.71--119.03-20260728T1645
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_122140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 19:25:03.466978+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.