Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.3357°N, 116.9250°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 22:09:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
37.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
140f8742ab59e639ebaed41686510ad32d7c8d0e530ff719c0ddde8e908e3dc2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_123819_pred-38.34--116.92-20260723T2209
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_123819_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 19:43:07.387952+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.