Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
5.1 miles East of Badger
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles East of Badger
36.6317°N, 118.9422°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 05:39:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
406h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
201.9 km
101.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.65 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5298bcb4adb79c3d4b8e3719b5483433c9358f64f769594a631c7c6ca2ad721b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_151521_pred-36.63--118.94-20260810T0539
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_151521_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 22:19:42.788303+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.