Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
17.9 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.9 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3564°N, 118.8761°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 05:18:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
286h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7388cac94c1a65ea11d6e1a5bc31ec5b2a43de08ae672d3b75aa7e18ac7b8603
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_155322_pred-38.36--118.88-20260805T0518
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_155322_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 22:57:14.693429+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.