Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
2.3 miles East of Cazadero
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles East of Cazadero
38.5324°N, 123.0415°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 01:03:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
42h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
18.4 km
Pred. 9.9 km vs actual 8.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0b18079dab2d0d912446e1df0b0c674e56071e0181feb8f39bbfc6c8e7675c25
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_163013_pred-38.53--123.04-20260726T0103
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_163013_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 23:35:24.721132+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.