Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
15.5 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles South of Calexico
32.4560°N, 115.4624°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 17:50:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
466h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.63
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
10.1 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
72b85c6a50a77f2909d371e0a14a0084e1d5216b85ae08fd39d87067cfae328f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_234157_pred-32.46--115.46-20260812T1750
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_234157_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 06:46:56.542001+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.