Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.4 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2279°N, 122.6786°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 05:28:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 8.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9e5c05a1a0bf51fe3f69a48d5464d6c689b2ec879892c8e465a480c3e90eae4a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_001041_pred-39.23--122.68-20260725T0528
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_001041_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 07:15:05.356092+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.