Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
5.1 miles East of Badger
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles East of Badger
36.6317°N, 118.9422°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 05:39:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
402h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
201.9 km
101.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.65 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3cca08a9e452020d038c1e2a53d3adfe80a1ee563e0a1dd423e21acbd9ef2b9f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_002027_pred-36.63--118.94-20260810T0539
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_002027_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 07:23:34.137413+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.