Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
15.5 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles South of Calexico
32.4560°N, 115.4624°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 04:28:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
20.2 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 12.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
95ed4d85842716890d67f383c054b4e0f8439bf8da32d5385144bef55f01ea8b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_002741_pred-32.46--115.46-20260726T0428
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_002741_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 07:32:16.086302+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.