Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
5.1 miles North-West of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles North-West of Mammoth Lakes
37.7072°N, 119.0283°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 17:58:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M3.01 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ddd376fc8f2a647e18830ad6c3c751605f38c7fa31a7706836fa9fdec5833fc1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_005345_pred-37.71--119.03-20260724T1758
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_005345_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 07:58:20.182154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.