Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
5.1 miles East of Badger
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.1 miles East of Badger
36.6317°N, 118.9422°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 22:43:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
80.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.35
Predicted M3.65 vs actual M2.3
- 0.35 over limit
Depth Error
27.8 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 18.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1fd3c5d7235237ad6d0abfef180622cbfa9f2d39bf21ea8d39c63d8e288a5447
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_010233_pred-36.63--118.94-20260725T2243
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_010233_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 08:07:04.606564+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.