Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.3357°N, 116.9250°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 12:14:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
37.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b84004207403871da40a4d4c6101cf3aeb2055f8765e972b09251882d52a6d5c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260724_012000_pred-38.34--116.92-20260724T1214
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 11:00:01 PST
Source Batch
20260724_012000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 08:24:27.305263+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.